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Dave's Dime Week 9

Sun, 02 Nov 2008 16:24:25 GMT

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Happy Halloween!

...I guess. Kind of loses its appeal a bit when you are on the giving end of the candy.

Then again, do I really need to be eating more?

Instead of using this spot to brag about how flat out amazing I am (10 - 3 - 1 against the spread last week), I instead wanted to thank my readers, whether this is your 4th year or your very first Dime.

I've had over 100 additions to the subscription list this year, and am getting very close to 300 subscribers. Considering my 1st year I was sending this out to 18 people, its just amazing to see how far its come.

So thank you. Whether you actually read it word for word or delete it as soon as it hits your box, I appreciate every one of you. Thanks!

Oh, and PS... I'm pretty damn amazing.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 10 - 3 - 1 (.769)
Without the spread: 11 - 3 - 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 63 - 50 - 3 (.558)
Without the spread: 72 - 44 - 0 (.621)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 11 - 1 - 0 (.917)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0) W
Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5) W
Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0) W
San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0) W
Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0) W
Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0) W
Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0) W
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0) W
Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5) W
Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0) W

THE BAD:

Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0) T
Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0) L
St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo (-5.5)

I've got to admit, this is really more of a feeling than anything. Brett Favre is getting completely destroyed by the media for yet another rocky game against Kansas City, where he threw 3 interceptions. This puts his TD to INT ratio at 3 to 7 over his last 3 games; and that is against Cincinnati (0 - 8), Oakland (2 - 5), and Kansas City (1 - 6). I'll be the first to tell you he sucks and the game has passed him by. But this is exactly the kind of game Favre all of a sudden returns to old in and leads the Jets to a win, getting them right back into the thick of things. In actuality, Buffalo should beat up the Jets through the air and win this game easily at home. But 55.8% on the year gives me the right to trust my gut I think, and I think the Jets surprise everyone here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Jets

Detroit (+12.5) @ Chicago (-12.5)

Detroit has been surprisingly effective in keeping games close lately. They let Washington slip away and cover the spread, but they had covered easily against Houston and Minnesota. So giving a gritty team 12.5 points isn't easy, but Chicago should hammer these guys. They have a surprisingly good offense this year, and the defense is more than enough to overpower Detroit. I'll take my chances on yet another double digit favorite; this season has not been good to them.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cincinnati (+7.5)

Awfully tough to take Jacksonville -7.5 when they seem to play every game within a field goal, but coming off of a loss to Cleveland, this is a must win for them in a wide open AFC wild card race. Against a Palmer-less Bengals team, they really need to man up here and pick up a strong win. My guess is they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Baltimore (+1.5) @ Cleveland (-1.5)

This should be a great game, especially if you are a fan of defense. I believe that Baltimore's is a bit better though, and they should be able to run the ball a bit better than Cleveland, too. Lastly, Baltimore's new "Suggs Package", which features two QBs on the field at the same time, allows for all kinds of trickery. Get the feeling this might be a new Wildcat type of deal that will break a few big plays, and in a game of defense and inches, big plays will be massive.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Tampa Bay (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)

Kansas City had a good game against the Jets, but that was more Brett Favre collapsing than anything. Tampa Bay's QB play is susceptible to a bad game here or there; but I think they will run the ball well enough to take the pressure off of Garcia. Kansas City will have a lot of trouble scoring, and I think Tampa Bay does indeed win this one by double digits.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Houston (+4.5) @ Minnesota (-4.5)

Houston's passing attack is pretty strong, and Minnesota's secondary is very beatable. This being Houston's first road game in over a month worries me a bit, but I don't think Minnesota has done enough this year to warrant giving up more than a FG. I expect this to be a close game, so I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Houston

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)

Here's a game that its pretty clear that Arizona is the trap. But this time, I'm going to spring it. I still think Arizona is a good football team and I think they can win this game in shootout fashion. Putting up 20+ on Carolina was no easy feat; they should be able to score on St. Louis. Bookies can't be right EVERY time, can they?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5)
Tennessee is a perfect 7 - 0, both in the record books and against the spread. Like I said last week, until this train gets de-railed, I'm just going to keep on riding it; I don't even need to crunch a single number. Don't overthink this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Miami (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
In Denver, a slumping home team hungry for a win is tough to bet against. But I'm gonna do it. Miami is still underrated and Denver is still overrated. Denver's awful passing defense should get exploited by Miami. Denver will score too, but I think Miami prevails here, as they are in my opinion the better football team right now.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Dallas (+9.0) @ New York Giants (-9.0)

Even in the win over Tampa Bay, Dallas still looked awful. No reason at all that New York shouldn't roll here... on paper. But NFC East rivalry games rarely go as easily as they should. Even if I was starting at quarterback for Dallas, I'd still take a stab on them if you gave me +9.0 points in a rivalry game like this. Then again, if I were QB I'd take the Giants and throw the game... but you get the idea. I'll take Dallas to make things more difficult then they need to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Dallas

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)

Uh-oh, we have ourselves a philosophy pick! With McFadden still out, the Raiders explosive dynamic is gone; as is the chance to keep Fargas fresh. Statistically there is no reason to believe Atlanta will have trouble moving the ball; their 3rd ranked rushing game faces the Raider's 26th ranked rushing defense. Atlanta's one weakness, it's passing defense, faces the league's 30th ranked passing attack. Not only do you get Atlanta at the bargain price of -3, but bookies are also gift wrapping it for you, offering to bet 100 to win 105 or better. Do you see any reason at all to take the Raiders here? Me neither. Yet somehow I'm hitting 92% on these plays.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5)

Back-to-back philosophy! Philadelphia's 4th ranked offense (scoring per game) faces Seattle's 25th ranked defense. McNabb and Westbrook, leading the league's 4th best passing offense, get to face the league's 30th ranked passing defense this week. As for Seattle on offense? They are 13th in rushing but face the league's 9th ranked rushing defense... a defense that will have an even easier time defending against the run because there is no reason to respect the pass. Seattle's passing offense is league worst (and that includes time when Matt Hasselbeck was in; he's injured now), and faces the 12th ranked passing defense; more than enough to stop this measly attack. The line opened at -7. Around 84% of bettors took Philadelphia. And the line moved to -6.5. It doesn't get any easier than this... or does it?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

New England (+6.0) @ Indianapolis (-6.0)

Here is another situation I've gotta go with my gut on. Honestly, Indianapolis hasn't done anything outside of one game (smashing Baltimore) to warrant giving up 6 points to anyone, much less a team picking up confidence and winning football games like the New England Patriots. So why am I going to take them? Because they actually looked a lot better against Tennessee; that final score was not indicative of their play. Getting away from the league's best defense and giving Peyton a little room to breathe, I think the Colts get the job done at home in a must win game for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (+2.0) @ Washington (-2.0)

Willie Parker will be back, at least in a limited roll. Washington has sleepwalked through three straight games (StL, Cle, and Det). And Washington is the favorite? Seems very off to me. Only reason this isn't a philosophy pick is that Pittsburgh is coming off of a loss which may influence some people's decision. But even still, I'm very surprised Pittsburgh is the underdog here, and I think its a trap; I'll take the Redskins.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 44 - 37 - 0 (.543)

Week 10 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Buk9Bc_x2Ew

Arkansas State +23.0

Missouri -20.0

Iowa State +31.0

USC -44.0

Louisville -13.5

Texas Tech +4.0

Rice -2.0

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

---------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Week 8

Sun, 26 Oct 2008 15:50:55 GMT

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

That title is a Bon Jovi song reference, for you musically challenged.

Can you believe the regular season is almost halfway done already?

Where does the time go?

I really wish there was some way to extend the season... without football, I might have to focus on things like how screwed up the economy is.

Or how I need to get a second job so I can afford the gas money it costs to commute to my first job.

I'll have to go back to doing what I do during the off season; capping non-sports related events. Over/Under 3.5 how many times my mother will ask me to walk the dog this week? Over/Under 17 hours I'll spend playing video games? Over/Under $12.00 in my bank account?

(Take the under on the 3rd one, and you should make some money. Ironic, too, that you'll be cashing in on me having $6.30 to my name)

But enough about how broke and sad I will be without football (or, at least, how much more I'll notice it without football). We still have a whole half a season to go, so lets see if I can keep my winning percentage in the green for another half-season!

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 7 - 7 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 11 - 3 - 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 53 - 47 - 2 (.530)
Without the spread: 61 - 41 - 0 (.598)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 - 1 - 0 (.909)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

San Diego (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0) W
New Orleans (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0) W
Tennessee (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0) W
Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0) W
San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants (-10.5) W
New York Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0) W

THE BAD:

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati (+9.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5) L
Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay (-10.5) L
Detroit (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

Dallas (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0) L

What in the world is going on with Dallas??

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Green Bay (+1.0) L

This is the effort Indy gives after a blowout win VS. Baltimore?

Denver (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0) L

Where did Denver's offense go, and where did New England's come from?

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0)

Shockingly enough, another Raider game that is impossible to predict. So far this season the Raiders have beaten Kansas City and New York (Jets), played the Bills and Chargers very close, and got destroyed by the Broncos and Saints. What do the Broncos and Saints have? An excellent passing attack. Baltimore does NOT have that, meaning they can't exploit the Raiders' main weakness. And the Raiders did beat the Jets and defend against the pass very well. As such, I think the Raiders have a great shot at keeping this game close. All that said, will the Raiders offense be able to move and protect the ball against a very fierce Ravens defense IN Baltimore? This is where I start leaning the other way. As always with Raider games, I must advise you to stay away; but I'm going to give the slight edge to Baltimore for their defense and for their home field advantage.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)

Very quietly, Carolina has established themselves as a defensive force in the NFC. With a balanced offense as well, Carolina has all the makings of a playoff team. Can't take anything away from Arizona; they have played great this year as well, and their passing attack is outstanding. Both teams will score their share of points, but I think Carolina's defense and home field advantage (hmm, sensing a little de ja vu from my last pick) will put them over the top here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0)

Two teams going in completely different directions. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6, and their two losses were by a combined 7 points. The defense is strong and the offense is cruising. It feels so wrong passing on Dallas at home -2.0, but this is 2008, and this Cowboys team right now is not the better team on the football field. On paper they may be; but the defense is doing nothing and with Romo out, I'm having trouble validating picking against the Buccaneers.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5)

Detroit had a few huge plays that ended up earning them the cover last week against Houston, but Washington shouldn't allow those this week. Generally I'd take the winless home team and the touchdown, but Washington is coming off of a loss to St. Louis and a too-close-for-comfort game against Cleveland; I think they keep their focus and look to flex their muscles against a very bad Detroit team this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)

Ah, the lovely trap game. In one corner we have Buffalo, 5 - 1 coming fresh off of an impressive victory over San Diego. Trent Edwards is back, healthy, and looking great. This week he faces the 27th ranked passing defense in Miami. Miami is coming off of two straight losses and seems to have come back down to earth. So why is the spread only -1.0? Throw in the fact that Buffalo has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the fact that Miami lost at home last week as a favorite and is now a home underdog, it doesn't get a whole lot more philosophical than this.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
Very interesting, considering we are just about at the halfway point and I have no idea what to expect from either of these teams, at all. New England pounded Denver last week, but hadn't shown anything like that in the games before that one; St. Louis stunned Washington in Washington, and then kept the crazy train rolling with a win over Dallas. The +7.5 is awfully tempting, but I actually think St. Louis is due to come back down to earth, and with Stephen Jackson not at 100% and New England having a game to build on, I'll take my chances with the Pats.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)

Football in England that doesn't involve a spherical ball. Interesting. Really no way to tell what effect the travel will have on these teams (though we do know San Diego doesn't seem to travel very well), so we'll have to call that a wash and just look at the game. Yes, losing Reggie Bush is yet another big hit to the Saints offense, but they get Colston back for this game. San Diego's passing defense is awful, and I really feel that the Saints, even without Bush, will move the ball at will through the air. The Chargers will score plenty too, but I trust Brees more than I trust Rivers. Plus, you have the cool Brees playing against his old team angle, too. I'll take the Saints to win it.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
I was completely ready to pick Atlanta, but something doesn't look right about this game. Philly has not been a blow-out team this year, and Atlanta is coming off of an impressive win against a tough Chicago team. What is with this spread? Looking closer, you have the 4th best passing game in the league in Philly VS. the 26th ranked passing defense in Atlanta. Atlanta's rushing game, which is 2nd best in the league, faces the league's 9th ranked rushing defense. This just isn't a good match up for Atlanta at all, and I think Philadelphia will win comfortably.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5)
Would love to find a reason to take Kansas City, but with the Jets coming fresh off of a frustrating loss and the Chiefs once again without their best offensive weapon (Larry Johnson), it is hard to see them finding the endzone with this ragtag group of quarterbacks. Double digit underdogs have had amazing success this year, but I think this one loses big.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)

Jacksonville has won 3 games this year; by margins of 2, 3, and 7. Cleveland's defense has looked very good over the last few weeks. Jacksonville is the clear cut better team this year, but I just think 7 points is too many to give up.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)

After the way Houston coughed up the cover last week, I'm very hesitant to turn to them again this week; but they are the pick here. Mired in injuries and now heading out on the road without Carson Palmer, this Bengals team has to be completely demoralized. The Texans are still trying hard to get their season back on track after a rocky start, and they are playing in their 4th straight home game. A double digit win in this spot seems very reasonable.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
These teams match up pretty perfectly, and the 3 points makes perfect sense since Pittsburgh has home field advantage. This should be a game that comes down to bounces; and with Eli Manning resorting to some old bad habits and throwing some interceptions over the last few games, Pittsburgh may be the pick here. I believe, however, that the Giants defense will be able to contain Big Ben a bit better than Cincinnati and Jacksonville could, and the G-men will finish this game on top.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)

Seattle is decimated by injuries, and they have made me pay for taking them for three straight weeks now. Lets make it 4. They lost to Green Bay and Tampa Bay by 10 points each, and San Francisco is not as good as those two teams. I think Seneca Wallace gets a little more done against the 49ers this week, and Seattle covers; but still finds a way to lose by 3 or 4.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

MONDAY

Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0)

I've thoroughly enjoyed riding the Titan-train this year, and until I hit a rock in the tracks, I'm going to keep riding it. The betting public's inability to appreciate great defense, as well as the betting public not realizing that Indianapolis just isn't the same team they've been over the last few years, gives us a spread of only 4.0 that should be a lot closer to 7.0. Tennessee matches up perfectly to the Colts, and this is their year. They send that message Monday night in big bold letters.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 39 - 33 - 0 (.542)

Week 9 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y78Fk21qyI8

South Florida -4.0

TCU -31.0

Missouri -21.0

USC -16.0

Tulsa -23.0

Texas Tech/Kansas Over 66.0
UCLA/California Over 51.0
SMU/Navy Over 62.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

---------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Week 7

Sun, 19 Oct 2008 10:40:23 GMT

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

I'm going to be completely honest with you.

I work at a radio station that sometimes makes me work very awkward hours. Making me work 4:30AM to 6:00AM on what was supposed to be my day off Thursday is a great example. I got home at 7:00AM, and slept until 11:30AM Thursday. I haven't been to sleep since.

I've been up for over 22 hours straight, and have only 4.5 hours of sleep over the last 48 hours.

So why am I telling you this? Two reasons.

One, to apologize in advance that the write-ups aren't as good as usual. They may not be too sharp as I can barely see straight, let alone write well.

Two, the intro is usually where I try (key word, try) to be a little clever or insightful... and the part of my brain that provides cleverness and insightfulness is simply not open for business right now. So you get a boring explanation as to why that is instead.

On that note, let's just fast forward to the picks.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 6 - 8 - 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 6 - 8 - 0 (.429)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 46 - 40 - 2 (.535)
Without the spread: 50 - 38 - 0 (.568)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 9 - 1 - 0 (.900)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Miami (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0) W
Cincinnati (+8.5) @ New York Jets (-8.5) W
Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5) W
St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington (-13.5) W
Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco (+4.5) W
New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (-4.5) W

THE BAD:

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0) L
Oakland (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0) L
Green Bay (+1.5) @ Seattle (-1.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5) L
Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

Detroit (+13.0) @ Minnesota (-13.0) L

With a back up QB and no defense, Detroit pushes Minnesota to the edge?

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) L

Jax can't stop Pittsburgh's passing game at all, but then shuts down Denver in Denver??

New York Giants (-7.5) @ Cleveland (+7.5) L

Undefeated NYG gets stomped by a miserable Cleveland team... very surprising.

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

I always like to stare at the schedule long enough to find at least 6 underdogs to play, as you know every week there will be some dogs that cover, and I like to try my best to find them. I can't this week. I have a few, but I like almost all of the favorites this week. Hope you like giving up points!

SUNDAY

San Diego (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)

Statistically, this looks like a pretty even match-up, which is indicated by the spread. I have to give the slight edge to Buffalo though; Buffalo's defense is a bit better then San Diego's, especially against the pass. But perhaps more importantly, San Diego is traveling cross country and playing at a time they aren't used to (10AM Pacific Time), while Buffalo is coming fresh off of a bye and should be extra-motivated to pick up the win and shore up on defense after their blowout loss against Arizona. I like Buffalo to pick up the win at home here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

New Orleans (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)

Quite simply, when faced with the choice between a high octane offense and a shutdown defense, you should take the defense. Carolina's passing defense is the league's second best, and it should be able to slow down New Orleans a little better then some other teams have. Meanwhile, New Orleans defense should have trouble stopping the Panthers.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Minnesota's running game has gone ice cold; teams are committing to shutting down the run and have succeeded for three straight weeks in keeping Adrian Peterson contained. If New Orleans and Detroit can do it, imagine how well Chicago's 5th-best-in-the-league rushing defense will. And unlike New Orleans and Detroit, I don't think Chicago lets them escape with a win.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ Cincinnati (+9.5)

Very tough to pick a winless Cincinnati team without Carson Palmer at the helm in this spot, but I'm going to do just that. Pittsburgh is using their 3rd string running back due to injuries, and Cincinnati has had success defending against the pass this year. To be honest, I'm not really sure how the Bengals find their way into the endzone with Fitzpatrick as their quarterback, but a winless team playing against a division rival at home getting 9.5 points is just not something I'm willing to bet against.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Tennessee (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)

The league's best defense playing against the league's second worst offense. Of course, it is only 2nd worst thanks to Larry Johnson, the Chief's main offensive weapon; who was suspended by the team for breaking a team rule. Did I mention the Chiefs had the league's worst rushing defense, too? Please stop me when you see the reason to like the Chiefs here. None? Cool.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)

I'm still stunned at the absolute hammering Baltimore took last week. What I do know is that the Ravens are a very proud team on defense, and I think they will play with a big chip on their shoulder this week. If Baltimore can take away the big play against the wildcat formation Miami throws out there, they should be able to keep this game close, and also pick up the win.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants (-10.5)

Getting embarrassed on Monday night in Cleveland, New York now returns home to play a struggling San Francisco team. This is a game they need to win to stay atop the division, and they should come out pretty fired up after the egg they laid Monday night. I believe they will make a statement in this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Dallas (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0)

Now there is some talk that Romo may play with his broken finger, which I don't actually believe. Whether he does or doesn't shouldn't matter in this one. Johnson does not have Romo's arm, but he will have so many weapons around him that he should have no trouble manufacturing scoring drives. I predicted St. Louis would keep it close last week and maybe win; and they did. But let's not get too crazy; they are still a very bad football team. I hate laying points on a team like Dallas that has played so poorly of late, but they are definitely the pick at only 7 points.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Detroit (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)

Very difficult to take a team with only one win to cover by 9.5 points, but I can see them doing so. With Dan Orlovsky in at QB and Roy Williams being traded, Detroit really doesn't have any firepower at all on offense. Unlike Minnesota last week, Houston should be able to move the ball through the air and put up points. This is Houston's first weak opponent this year, and I think they jump at the opportunity to put up some points and win comfortably.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Green Bay (+1.0)

I'm tempted to take Green Bay here because this feels like a trap spread, but Indy convinced me that they are back last week. Baltimore's defense is stout, and they moved the ball at will. If Woodson was 100% and Al Harris was playing, I'd consider the Packers much more strongly, but with a beat up secondary it is hard to believe they will stop the Colts if they are indeed getting on a roll here. Joseph Addai's absence may hurt, but I think the Colts find a way to win here and are too good to pass up on at only -1.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New York Jets (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)

Please just ignore this pick. I'm 0 - 5 on picking Raider games despite knowing this team top to bottom, inside and out. You simply can not cap this team. They have so much talent and potential and you never know when it will work and when it won't. I'm going to take the Raiders very begrudgingly because I have a really good feeling they will be fired up in front of the home crowd after a blowout loss and they will run their offense a lot better at home then they did inside the dome. The main reason I like this bet is that the spread just screams trap; Everyone loves Favre and the Jets, everyone hates the Raiders and they are the laughing stock of the league with Al Davis's press conferences. The Raiders rely on the running game and the Jets have an excellent rushing defense. The Raiders' passing defense is awful and the Jets love to throw the ball. I can go on and on; Why is this only 3 points and not 7 to 9 like all of the other big underdogs this week? I think the Jets are way too obvious, and the bookies know something we don't. Oakland finds a way and surprises everyone, including me.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5)

Cleveland coming off of a game they had no business winning, Washington coming off a game they had no business losing. This week they meet, and I believe they return things to the way they should be. Washington will not get caught sleeping two weeks in a row.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)

Seattle is decimated with injuries on offense, and more alarmingly, the defense is getting shredded. As usual, Gruden is getting the most out of his team, and they are clicking on all cylinders. They are a great home team, and Seattle does not play well on the road. Yet another favorite I'm forced to take.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

MONDAY

Denver (+3.0) @ New England (-3.0)

Without Brady, this New England team isn't even a shadow of what it should be. Wins against the Chiefs, 49ers, and Jets; losses against the Dolphins and Chargers. Yes, they can still beat lower end teams, but teams like Denver that have firepower and will put points on the board are going to be too tough for the Patriots to keep up with. I don't doubt that it will be awfully tough to head into New England Monday night and leave with a win, but I feel like I am getting the better team PLUS points here. I can't pass on that.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Denver

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Sorry for all the favorites... hopefully for me it is just a favorite-pounds-dog kind of week.

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 33 - 29 - 0 (.532)

Week 8 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=en3qPUf3v6c

Hawaii +24.5

Georgia -15.0

Rice -3.0

Ohio State -3.0

Northern Illinois -7.5

Penn State -23.0

North Texas +18.5

Idaho +20.5

V Tech +2.5

Houston -12.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

---------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Week 6

Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:13:56 GMT

Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

I handle big winning weeks a little differently then most people do.

Most people go 7 - 1 - 0 College, 10 - 3 - 1 Pro for a combined 17 - 4 - 1 (81%) and feel like they are on top of the world. Like they have figured it all out. Like they've conquered the books.

Am I happy to see my hard work finally manifest itself in a great week? Of course I am. But I can't afford to let myself get too cocky. I relate dominating the bookmakers to "Messin' With Sasquatch"

For those of you that haven't seen these commercials, click here to see one.

Every commercial starts and ends the same way; some brash young man (me) decides he's going to take a shot at Sasquatch (Vegas)... it goes very well, and it is awesome. But what happens next? Sasquatch gets upset and beats the crap out of the guy that messed with him.

Moral of the commercials? DON'T mess with Sasquatch.

Unfortunately for me, it is one of my absolute favorite thing to do.

Long story short; enjoy the ride with me and laugh along with me at Sasquatch's expense. But don't go abandoning me when he shatters the windshield, grabs me, and throws me off the side of the highway.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 10 - 3 - 1 (.769)
Without the spread: 9 - 5 - 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 40 - 32 - 2 (.556)
Without the spread: 44 - 30 - 0 (.595)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 6 - 1 - 0 (.857)

**Outright Upsets**: 6 - 14 - 0 (.300)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5) W
Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5) W
Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0) W
Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0) W
Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5) W
Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0) W
New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0) W
Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) W

THE BAD:

Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0) L
Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) T

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0) L

What is going on with San Diego? Everyone is talking about the Wildcat offense, but the real story here is San Diego not being able to score on a fairly average defense.

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Chicago (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
Pretty remarkable to consider coming into this season Atlanta was projected to win about 4 games on the year. Instead, they are 3 - 2, fresh off of a win in Green Bay, and they really do look good. All respect to them, I just don't see them winning in this spot. Their 3 wins have come against a hobbled Green Bay and two of the absolute worst teams in the league in Kansas City and Detroit. Chicago is a big step up from the teams they've beaten. Not to mention, in order for Atlanta to be effective, they need to establish the run; which will be extremely tough to do against one of the league's best rushing defenses. I think the Bears win by 2 scores or more, so I love them at only -2.5.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Miami (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
Here's a good ol' fashion winning trend; bet AGAINST teams that are coming off of three straight division rivalry games that are favored the following week. It helps that Miami is clicking and playing with confidence, and the Texans always seem to find a way to lose. Houston will turn things around and get some wins as the season moves on; but it won't be this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

Baltimore (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0)

Indianapolis is a couple of bounces away from being 0 - 4. They had an improbable comeback from down 15 - 0 in Minnesota a few weeks back, and they had the miracle of all miracles last week down 27 - 10 with under 5 minutes to go (thanks to an epic collapse from Houston, and more specifically, Sage Rosenfels). This team just hasn't been very good; bad offensive line play is making things difficult for Peyton, and bad rushing defense is keeping the ball control in the opponents favor. Baltimore is the real deal; I don't believe it either, but this defense is as nasty as any in the league. They should do a fine job of keeping the pressure on Peyton and running the ball; and unlike the Vikings and Texans, they have the defense and the intelligence to close it out. I like them outright.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Detroit (+13.0) @ Minnesota (-13.0)

As if things weren't bad enough for Detroit, go ahead and add a Kitna back injury to the mix. Bad news, considering the long ball was really the only chance Detroit had. Completely shut down last week, Peterson should have big-game on the mind against a terrible defense in Detroit. There just isn't much reason to believe Minnesota doesn't win this game by two touchdowns or much more.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Oakland (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)

Damnit, Oakland is back, another loss on my card. I will adamantly stand by the fact that at times this Oakland team has looked as good as any, but it is so difficult to predict how long the good side will play and how long the bad side will play. The main problem Oakland has had though is pressure on Russell; and I don't think the Saints are going to get to him as often as the Chargers and Bills were able to. The return of Justin Fargas, the bye week to get a bit healthier, Lane Kiffin finally fired (like pulling a band-aid; just good to get it over with finally)... I'll take my chances with a touchdown's worth of points and pray that the "A-team" shows up.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+6.0) @ New York Jets (-6.0)

The Bengals have really looked pretty good in pushing both the Giants and the Cowboys to the limit, and you have to throw out the Cleveland game as Palmer wasn't playing. Palmers health is my only concern here; if he is out, this is an automatic win for the Jets. But I'm going to assume he plays and stays in the game; and going with that assumption, I think the Bengals win this game. They have a surprisingly solid passing defense (6th in the league in yards against), they have shown they have no fear at all of playing on the road, and the Jets are overrated and have the league's worst passing defense. If Palmer plays this game from start to finish, I think the Bengals find a way to steal their first victory.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)

This game is just so damn evenly matched it is unfair. Great defenses, effective offenses. It is still a little too early in the season for me to get a good read on what these teams are made of. But so far this season, Tampa Bay has looked much better at home then they do on the road, and Carolina looks worse on the road then they do at home. Home field advantage is usually the way to go when deciding on a coin-flip, and putting Garcia back in as the starter should give Tampa Bay the extra little boost they need.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington (-13.5)

Wow, is Washington real or what? For a team written off as doomed before the season even started, they won two impressive games against New Orleans and Arizona, then went on the road and beat Dallas as a double digit underdog and Philly as a 6 point underdog. After two intense road games against division rivals and winning both, there is absolutely no way they could have enough left in the tank to get amped up for a game against the pitiful Rams. The Rams, meanwhile, are coming fresh off of a bye with a new coach and with Bulger back in the driver's seat; you'd better believe he'll be ready to prove he belongs there. This is such a massive letdown situation for Washington it is unbelievable. St. Louis is the best bet of the day, and if you are a daredevil, you might even want to try the moneyline upset, too.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)

I get the feeling I might regret this pick, but unfortunately, I actually watched the Jacksonville/Pittsburgh game. I watched as a Pittsburgh team with no running back and an anemic offense torched Jacksonville's secondary (which had to be LOOKING pass!) all game long. In Jacksonville! Now they head out to Denver, a tough enough place to play for both atmosphere and altitude, and a better offense in Denver should have a field day against this defense unless they improve substantially on last week's effort. At only minus 3 here I think Denver has way too much going for them to ignore.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5)
Like Dallas here for a few reasons. First of all, the spread. Arizona coming off of a blowout win against undefeated Buffalo, Dallas coming off of a game where they struggled against the winless Bengals. Doesn't +4.5 for Arizona at home look extremely enticing here? Think trap. Not to mention, Dallas lost to the hated Redskins two weeks ago and had trouble against the lowly Bengals last week, and the media is having a field day with the Pacman Jones story and the Terrell Owens saga. How much do you think Dallas wants to shut every last one of them up with a dominant win here?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco (+4.5)
Philly has looked sharp at points this season, but they haven't been able to put games away. They could have won the Dallas and Washington games, and they were a yard away in the Chicago game. This team still has a ton of talent and they are simply a better football team then the 49ers. This is a must win for them to get back on track, and to be honest, I love that I only have to give up 4.5, as I'd likely taken them all the way up to -7.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Green Bay (+1.5) @ Seattle (-1.5)
Seattle coming off of a humiliating loss against a very tough Giants team returns home, where they play substantially better; especially with their backs against the wall. Green Bay is coming off of a home loss to Atlanta and their spirits have to be low. They are ravaged with injuries and now they have to play in a very hostile environment in Seattle. I think the Seahawks kick the Packers while they are down and pick up the win back at home.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

New England (+4.5) @ San Diego (-4.5)

Much like the Dallas game, I like this game simply because of the spread. You have a New England team coming off of a nice win against San Francisco (getting everyone to believe in them again), and a San Diego team not only coming off of a loss to Miami, but that has also looked pretty terrible all season long. It is extremely hard not to like New England here, especially considering how well they always play against San Diego. 4.5 points is hard to pass on, and even the upset seems very realistic at a good price. You know what I like to do when things look far too obvious; throw it all out the window and bet the other way. Not to mention, San Diego HATES this team and should have revenge on the mind. I don't know how they'll do it, but I believe San Diego will find a way to win this game by a TD at home.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^San Diego

MONDAY

New York Giants (-7.5) @ Cleveland (+7.5)
Cleveland is just flat out bad this year. The offense is just not there, and the defense isn't good enough to make up for that. The Giants, meanwhile, are undefeated; and it would appear that Eli Manning has arrived. The Giants are working on all cylinders and are a substantially better team then Cleveland; find it hard to believe that they will falter with the whole country watching on Monday Night Football. New York should roll here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 - 24 - 0 (.556)

Week 7 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LK2A84DIkgk

Texas Tech -20.5
Northern Illinois -11.0
Arkansas +18.5
Tulsa -25.0
Idaho +34.0
Texas/Oklahoma Under 57
Kansas State/Texas A&M Over 62
Michigan State/Northwestern Under 47

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

--------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Week 5

Sun, 05 Oct 2008 00:50:03 GMT

Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Parity, parity, parity.

No, I'm not talking about Tina Fey's rendition of Sarah Palin. That's parody.

I'm talking about parity, the equality between teams. How absolutely crazy it is how true the "any given Sunday/Saturday" mantra has been lately.

Unranked Oregon State, Ole Miss, Michigan, Navy, and Maryland upset #1 USC, #4 Florida, #9 Wisconsin, #17 Wake Forest, and #20 Clemson, respectively. (Speaking of which, make sure you watch this week's Spare Change and tell me which upset was worse, USC or Florida!)

Everyone laughs and says "Oh that college football, so wild, lets return to some normalcy in pro football." Only to see 9.5 point underdog Kansas City beat Denver, and 11 point underdog Washington beat Dallas. And +8.0 Oakland and +9.0 St. Louis came close, too.

College football is always madness, but in pro football, there are usually some sure things. Indy wins the AFC South, San Diego wins the AFC West, New England wins the AFC East, Pittsburgh probably wins the AFC North.

Would you believe NONE of them are leading their divisions?

Sure, lots of football left to be played, not saying those teams are done for. Merely pointing out it has been a wild ride thus far and there is still quite a bit of time left.

Did I mention roller coasters make me nauseous? 5 weeks in and I'm turning green already.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 7 - 6 - 0 (.538)
Without the spread: 8 - 5 - 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 2 - 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 30 - 29 - 1 (.508)
Without the spread: 35 - 25 - 0 (.583)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 - 1 - 0 (.800)

**Outright Upsets**: 5 - 13 - 0 (.278)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5) W
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5) W
Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0) W
San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0) W
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City (+9.5) W
Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0) W
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0) W

THE BAD:

Arizona (+1.0) @ New York Jets (-1.0) L
Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay (-1.0) L
Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0) L
Baltimore (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

San Diego (-8.0) @ Oakland (+8.0) L

18 - 18 with less then 4 minutes to go. Oakland kicking off. If they tackle Sproles on the 20 or 30 like they have all game, SD takes the 3 mins and change for a game winning drive and +8 covers. Instead Sproles runs into FG range and SD kicks the FG to go ahead... Raiders turn the ball over on downs... All SD needs to do is get one 1st down to run out the clock. Instead, Tomlinson busts a 42 yard TD run. What an absolutely miserable way to lose.

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

Tricky week this week, lots of good games. Should be interesting.

SUNDAY

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5)

Well I'm sold; Baltimore appears to be the real deal this year. And Joe Flacco is looking like a great fit. That said, Tennessee just might be the best team in the AFC this year. They can run the ball with finesse, they can run the ball with power, and they can defend against anyone. In what should be an intense defensive struggle, I'll take the undefeated Titans.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5)

Okay, I'm very proud of myself for taking the Chiefs last week. Wish I'd have taken them straight up, too. Huge win against a very tough team in Denver. That is what happens when one team is riding too high and the other is riding too low. Now, this team goes on the road against a tough Carolina team and comes back down to earth. Damon Huard gives this team a much better chance to win (or, at least cover), but I still think the Chiefs fall hard after their big upset last week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0)
Before their bye week, I took Miami to cover against New England because I felt New England didn't have the passing game (Wow, never thought I'd type that!) to exploit the glaring weakness in Miami; their passing defense. San Diego, on the other hand, should have no trouble exploiting this weakness. Also worth noting is that San Diego's pass defense has also been pretty awful; but Pennington doesn't have the arm strength to exploit this. As such, I think this is a great spot for the Chargers.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0)

For three straight weeks, Washington has defeated tough opponents; Arizona, New Orleans, and Dallas, and yet they are still getting no respect. I could definitely see a letdown after the big upset last week. I could also see Philadelphia coming out with a big effort after last week's tough loss. But that said, I think Washington is very real, especially on defense. And you know how much I enjoy getting a lot of points in NFC East rivalry games; like it even more when they shouldn't be getting this many.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)

Houston had a great game against Jacksonville last week, which you have to give them credit for. They do have some things going for them, and I do believe they are better then what they have shown in the early stages of the season. But I still don't think 3 points is nearly enough to consider them in this spot. Indy got off to a rocky start this season too, and with Tennessee running away with the division and Jacksonville finding their groove, this is not a game Indianapolis can afford to lose. They overcome their injury issues and get the key win here in Houston.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)

To be honest, this is a bit of a faith pick. Seattle has serious issues, including the major injuries in their receiving core, but I still think they are a very good football team. Looking back, the loss at Buffalo wasn't as bad as it initially looked as they have shown to be a contender; and the San Francisco loss was the result of some really bad bounces. So I'm going on faith in my preseason assessment of this team that they can compete on any given week. The Giants needless to say are among the best in the NFC, but they haven't been completely overpowering this season, especially in the close one against Cincinnati a few weeks ago. I'll take my chances on Seattle making a game of it.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0)

Green Bay is absolutely demolished by injuries right now. So much so that there will be some banged up guys in the game this week simply because they need to be. With Harris out and Woodson with a toe injury, this secondary is severely depleted. I can't bring myself to pick Atlanta to win as they haven't proven they can beat the big opponent yet, and Green Bay losing their third straight at home also seems iffy; but I do believe it will go down to the wire.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5)

This spread really confuses me. So far this season Chicago has beaten the Colts, lost by a FG to Carolina on a late comeback, lost to Tampa Bay by a FG on a late comeback, and then beaten Philadelphia on a late stand. Now they play the 2nd worst team in the NFL (Congrats to St. Louis on #1) and are only giving up 3.5 points? As much as I want to take Detroit for how fishy this spread is, it might just be because people still think Detroit is better then they've looked so far and Chicago has kept every game close. Matt Forte is going to run all over this defense. I can't see too many scenarios in which Chicago does not win this game easily.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)

This is such a tough pick, but I really have a ton of respect for Tampa Bay, especially on defense. They've topped Green Bay, Chicago, and Atlanta and came very close in the season opener to beating NO. The jury is out on Denver... they cruised through Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans, but all of these teams have shown to be extremely vulnerable against the pass. They then lose to Kansas City. This is the toughest defense they have faced, and how they respond will tell us a lot about what this team is made of; but I for one am going with the Bucs. They have actually looked surprisingly good on offense, and Denver's defense is so awful, they should be able to score enough to win even if they can't shut Denver down.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)

You have an undefeated team going up against a team that just got absolutely destroyed last week... and the team that got completely destroyed is the favorite. Doesn't that seem a little too suspicious to you? I still think Buffalo is the real deal (even if they only seem to play the 2nd half the last few games), and Arizona has certainly shown flaws in losing two straight. But none of that matters; betting Buffalo is clearly the bet the bookmakers want me to make, and I know better then to try and outsmart them, so Arizona it is; with confidence.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Arizona

New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0)

Yes, New England lost to the Dolphins. Yes, they are no longer a superpower unbeatable dynasty. But they are still a good football team. They've also had a week off to go over what went wrong in the Dolphins game and how to prepare for the 49ers game. You can hate New England all you want, but they are a well coached football team that will still compete this year. They should pick up a win here against San Francisco; unless, of course, Frank Gore goes Ronnie Brown on them.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5)

This is PRO football, and this is way too many points. Dallas will be hungry to win convincingly after last week's big upset, and they obviously have the talent to do so. But a winless Cincinnati is not just going to roll over, and with the return of Chris Henry they have an extra weapon to throw to. Don't get me wrong; Dallas should win this game, and they should win it big. But this is the NFL, and I don't give up 16.5 points to anyone, unless we are dealing with the 2007 Patriots.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0)

Pittsburgh's offense has been a major disappointment this year, and losing Rashard Mendenhall with Willie Parker already out is a devastating blow for a team that needs to establish the run to be successful. Jacksonville has been far from dominant this year, but they've got too much talent on defense and too good of a game-planning coach in Jack Del Rio for me to believe that they won't be able to completely shut down the Steelers' offense. It may be close for a while, but eventually Jones-Drew and Taylor will grind down the defense and win by 6 or more.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

MONDAY

Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)

Minnesota hasn't looked good this year, but their schedule has been absolutely brutal. @Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, @Tennessee. Damn. Not that New Orleans is much easier, but they've got injury issues and a defense that shouldn't be able to stop Peterson and Taylor. Given the chance to set the tone with their running game, I think Minnesota can keep New Orleans' high octane offense off the field and control the clock. Also factor in the fact that Minnesota lost a game on Monday night already this year, and they will play even harder to prevent themselves from being embarrassed twice on the grand stage. Their season also hangs in the balance at 1 - 3. Just too many motivational factors working in Minnesota's favor this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 23 - 23 - 0 (.500)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elddewVzi1Q

Penn State -13.0

West Virginia -13.

Oklahoma -26.5

Illinois +3.0

Texas Tech -7.0

SMU +14.5
TCU -24.0
Arizona -21.0

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

---------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Week 4

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 13:51:02 GMT

Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Well, we've now seen it all.

Only 3 weeks into the season.

You've seen me at my best (11 - 3), you've seen me at my worst (4 - 12), and you've seen me at my most absolutely ordinary (8 - 8).

So where do we go from here? I actually don't mind being ordinary. Ordinary with a sprinkle of brilliance would be fine by me!

I think as the season goes on and stats become more available, it will be easier for me to pick winners down the stretch... but maybe I'm just being optimistic. Time will tell! But you don't care about any of this...

YOU want to know what I think about the USC game, don't you?

You can't fool me! Well I just figured instead of having to answer a million questions on how angry and sad I am about this game, I'd sum it up for you in a nice little podcast. You can listen to that here: "Why It Sucks To Be A Trojan Fan" (after you are done reading the Dime of course!)

And while I'm plugging my other stuff, check out my new sports show on youtube, Spare Change!

Enough shameless self promotion for you? Me too. Lets get to some NFL winners.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 - 6 - 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)

**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 4 - 0 (.200)

Season

With the spread: 23 - 23 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 27 - 20 - 0 (.574)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)

**Outright Upsets**: 4 - 11 - 0 (.267)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta (-5.5) W
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0) W
Houston (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5) W
Miami (+12.5) @ New England (-12.5) W
St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0) W
New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5) W
Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0) W
Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0) W

THE BAD:

Detroit (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5) L
New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0) L
Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5) L
Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5) L

How did Cleveland get so bad so fast? Was last year's success a total fluke?

Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo (-9.5) L
Oakland rolls into Buffalo and outplays them for 3 quarters? I knew this team was going to confuse people and give me trouble, but I'm 0 - 3 out of the gate with them and I'm pretty damn mad; at least hang on for the win if you are going to botch my pick guys!

Cincinnati (+13.0) @ New York Giants (-13.0) L

I guess Cinci had to wake up sooner or later, but who knew it would be in New York?

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Atlanta (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5)

Never would have guessed that Atlanta's quest to regain respectability would have been going so well so early, they really have taken strides and look much better then the hapless team they were last year. That being said, I think this is a tough spot for them; hitting the road isn't easy for a rookie QB, and after Carolina squandered an early 10 - 0 lead @ Minnesota, I think they are going to be extra-focused from start to finish in this one on both sides of the ball.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Arizona (+1.0) @ New York Jets (-1.0)
Absolutely no reason at all the Jets should be favored here. None. This spread tells me that there is still a lot of respect for Brett Favre, and people expect New York at home to finally turn the corner and step up for a big win. I just don't see it. Arizona has a solid secondary that won't let Favre get away with his antics. They also have an offense that shouldn't have trouble moving the ball if the Jets defense in the San Diego game is any indication. I like the Cards here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
I'm 100% sure whichever team I pick here is going to lose. It's just one of those games. I'm going to take Cleveland though; I simply can not believe their offense is as anemic as it has looked so far this season. Maybe the Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore defenses have just made it look this bad? Then again, what's to say Cincy won't pound this team like everyone else has? It is too hard to say. But in a game I'd consider a total coin flip, I have to TAKE the points instead of give them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Very interesting game here that could be trouble, but I'm not picking against Tennessee until they show some signs of weakness. Minnesota will NOT get away with throwing the ball deep on Tennessee like they did against Carolina, and if anyone can stop Minnesota's deadly rushing game, it is this stingy D. Giving up only a FG at home, they are the pick here I think.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Green Bay (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay (-1.0)
I respect Tampa Bay as much as anyone... but this is a little too much respect. GB loses a game to the best team in football and all of a sudden everyone has fallen out of love with them? Losing Harris was a HUGE blow to this team, don't get me wrong, but I don't think Brian Greise is the guy that is going to exploit this. I think Green Bay finds a way to win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

San Francisco (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0)
San Francisco has looked pretty damn good in this young season, but I'm still not a believer. They got a ton of favorable bounces in the Seattle game, and Detroit looks pretty useless (again) this year. New Orleans is dealing with the injury bug big time, but I think they have enough firepower to win this game at home by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Houston (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
I wanted to take Houston here, but I just can't. Houston got beat up on the road against Pittsburgh, then they headed to Tennessee and got beat up on both sides of the ball again. Now they travel AGAIN to a tough team coming fresh off an impressive upset in Indy. This Houston team has to be reeling right now, and I think Jacksonville gets back to .500 in convincing fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City (+9.5)
This is one of those games. Denver has looked unstoppable on offense - their passing game hasn't clicked like this in years. Kansas City meanwhile has looked totally useless this season on both sides of the ball and no one in their right mind would pick them. So what am I going to do? Pick them. Denver goes in overconfident, Kansas City comes in frustrated and playing for their pride in front of an angry Arrowhead crowd. No idea how, but Kansas City finds a way to keep this close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
I really, really want to pick St. Louis for the exact same reasons as I picked KC, but I just can't. I visualize final scores in my head and they never, ever come up close. Buffalo is just too good on defense to let this team score on them, and St. Louis has been too miserable on defense to stop anybody. This team is in REALLY bad shape. Yes, I know KC is too, but that is a division rivalry. St. Louis is just in REALLY bad shape.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Buffalo (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
I really, really want to pick St. Louis for the exact same reasons as I picked KC, but I just can't. I visualize final scores in my head and they never, ever come up close. Buffalo is just too good on defense to let this team score on them, and St. Louis has been too miserable on defense to stop anybody. This team is in REALLY bad shape. Yes, I know KC is too, but that is a division rivalry. St. Louis is just in REALLY bad shape.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
I'm just stocking up on big point underdogs this week! Okay, is Dallas the best team in the NFL? Probably. Are they very capable of winning this game by 4 or 5 touchdowns? Absolutely. But Washington has already done a pretty respectable job keeping New York, Arizona, and New Orleans in close games; and this is a division rivalry game. As much as I respect Dallas, I don't think Washington rolls over here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
This is very interesting. Almost feels like a trap. Chicago has kept things close against Carolina and Tampa Bay; two games they probably should have won, actually. Chicago was -3.0 in both of those games. Now, against a healthy McNabb, they are only +3.0 here. Am I underrating Chicago too much, or are the books/public overrating them too much? This week will clear that up a little; but I for one think Philly wins by a TD or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Baltimore (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0)

This one is really tough because Baltimore has looked so good and Pittsburgh has looked very ordinary for two straight weeks. That said, this will be Baltimore's first road game, and I'm also expecting Pittsburgh's offense to explode one of these days. Not an easy task against Baltimore's defense, but an overdue Pittsburgh offense + a rookie QB in his first road game against a division rival on Monday Night, its enough for me.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 19 - 17 - 0 (.528)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dAsDRoPPXY

Ball State -17.5

Ohio State -17.5

Temple +4.0

Arkansas State -1.0

Texas -27.5

Wisconsin -6.0

Rice -17.0

Georgia -7.0

Illinois +15.0

Washington -3.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

------------------------------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

For past issues of the Dime, head to: http://socaltrojan31.livejournal.com

Dave's Dime Week 3

Sun, 21 Sep 2008 04:36:18 GMT

Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Last weekend was kind of like getting out of debt.

You owe $2000. You go to Vegas and hit a jackpot on a slot machine for $2000.

You pay off your debt, and now you are back to even.

Are you happy you are out of debt? Sure you are. But you can't help but wish you HADN'T BEEN IN DEBT IN THE FIRST PLACE, so you had that $2000 for yourself!

I've seriously never seen anything like this. Yes, my picks can be streaky, but Week 2 I was 2 - 5 in college and 4 - 12 in pro; a combined 6 - 17. 26% winners. Week 3 I go 6 - 3 college, 11 - 3 - 1 pro; 17 - 6 - 1. 74% winners.

Very interesting way to arrive at 23 - 23 - 1 in two weeks. As I look at this week's schedule, I can't help but wonder which side of me is going to show up; my oracle side, or my blindfolded-swinging-a-bat-at-random side.

I just hope I'll be shining my crystal ball this weekend instead of shattering it with an errant swing.

Let's get started.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 - 3 - 1 (.786)
Without the spread: 11 - 4 - 0 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

**Outright Upsets**: 2 - 1 - 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 15 - 15 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 17 - 14 - 0 (.548)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)

**Outright Upsets**: 3 - 7 - 0 (.300)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville (-5.5) W
Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0) W
New Orleans @ Washington (PK) W
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0) W
New York Giants (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0) W
Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0) W
Miami (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) W
New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5) W
San Diego @ Denver (PK) W
Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0) W
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0) W

THE BAD:

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle (-7.0) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5) L

Week 1 they look like they could be beat by a college team... Week 2 they dominate on both sides of the ball? I'm not complaining, but wow, talk about confusing.

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

Wow, every game but one is a home favorite!

SUNDAY

Arizona (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)

Arizona is feeling it right now, but more importantly, their secondary (and defense overall) is pretty quietly putting together a nice season. They are really not a bad unit, and Warner is looking like he did a decade ago. I think Arizona will have the same success New Orleans had on offense in this game, but do just a little more on defense to pick up the upset in this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Arizona

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta (-5.5)

After watching the entire Kansas City / Oakland game, I can tell you that Oakland was the significantly better team on both sides of the ball. What does that tell you? With third stringer Thigpen getting the start here, Kansas City should struggle a bit on offense. Not only should Turner be able to run all over this defense, but Matt Ryan actually looks pretty good, and I thought it was a respectable effort against a tough Tampa Bay last week. I really feel Atlanta wins this game very easily.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo (-9.5)

I loved the Raiders' effort last week. I still feel that Week 1 was the anomaly, and this Raiders team will actually be decent this year. That said, Buffalo is a step above. Very impressive wins against Seattle and Jacksonville have shown how strong Buffalo is on defense and on offense. Trent Edwards looks good. Losing Fargas also hurts the Raiders; yes McFadden and Bush are more then capable, but this is a very tough road game for two rookies to shoulder the burden. Raiders WRs haven't helped Russell out at all, either. If Oakland plays mistake free football they have the talent to keep this one close, but I think asking a team with so much youth to play mistake-free on the road against this team might be asking a bit too much.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)

This game could definitely go either way. It is really going to come down to who makes less mistakes and who makes smarter decisions (I know, really dynamite analysis, doesn't every game come down to this?) I'm going to take my chances on Tampa Bay to be that team this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)

Interesting spread here. Carolina has looked pretty darn good, and while they haven't won big, they have won both of their games season. This week they get Steve Smith back, which is HUGE, as it will open everyone else up even more. Minnesota meanwhile is benching Jackson in favor of Frerotte, and Peterson had limited practice with a hamstring injury. Minnesota will definitely play hard to avoid 0 - 3, but I still can't find any real reason to believe they win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Carolina

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Houston (+4.5) @ Tennessee (-4.5)

I love this... apparently people still don't realize how good this Tennessee team is. Chris Johnson adds an explosive dynamic from the backfield, Lendale White provides the power running game, and the defense is flat out excellent. Its about time people start realizing Tennessee has been winning because of their stingy defense over the last few years, not because of Vince Young (and that isn't a shot on VY; it simply means that him being out does NOT make this an easy team to beat). Houston will have a decent year this year, but not this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Cincinnati (+13.0) @ New York Giants (-13.0)

Things keep getting tougher for Cincy. Hard to get an offense going when the first three defenses you face are Baltimore, Tennessee, and New York. 13 points looks like an awful lot, but when you consider how poor this Bengals defense is and how strong the Giants have looked on offense, I just have to believe the Giants keep rolling with a blowout win here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Miami (+12.5) @ New England (-12.5)

Last week New England was one of my absolute favorite picks, and they showed you why. But that win has apparently re-kindled the nation's betting love for this team, because here we are with a huge spread very early in the year again. The one thing the Jets and Cardinals had that the Patriots do not this week was a veteran QB with a cannon arm. I just don't think this New England team is built to be a blowout team. I think they give Cassel the green light this week and he makes a few mistakes, and Miami keeps this close.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0)

Seattle had the game in their grasp last week and gave it away. This was a team that had high hopes for this season, and now all of a sudden they find themselves facing 0 - 3 with a loss here. St. Louis has to wake up eventually, but I really feel like Seattle will be a team possessed this week and get the job done in a big way.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Detroit (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)
While San Francisco did have a big win last week and Detroit got blown out once again, I really feel like this is a game that Detroit has a shot in. They've looked okay offensively; their defense is definitely spotty, but I get the feeling they will step up this week and cover the spread. I believe San Francisco will find a way to win, but it will be by a FG or so.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5)

Denver has looked excellent on offense this year, and despite the fact that they should have lost the San Diego game (non-call on a clear fumble), they still moved the ball virtually at will for most of the game. But their defense wasn't exactly thrilling, and I really don't know that they are a touchdown better then New Orleans. I'll give them the win, but I expect a shootout in which New Orleans stays very close, and maybe even comes out on top.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Jacksonville (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)

So bizarre how many of these games I am taking the home team to win and the road team with the points, but this is another one. Jacksonville came into this year a favorite to make the playoffs and they now face 0 - 3, which would be a death sentence with Indy at 2 - 1 and Tennessee at 2 - 1 or 3 - 0 in their division. Injuries have really hampered this team, but I still think they will not go down without kicking, screaming, and clawing. If they have any success on the ground, which hasn't been hard to do against Indy this year, they will bring this one to the wire.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)
Baltimore had a very nice win against Cincinnati, but I still don't know that they are that great of a football team. Cleveland has been held to only one TD this year, and they are too good to be contained for a 3rd straight game, even against a tough Baltimore defense. I think Cleveland forces Flacco to make a few mistakes, and they find a way to avoid 0 - 3 and win this game.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)

Philadelphia re-established themselves as a power in the NFC Monday night, and no one is questioning what a healthy Donavan McNabb can do on offense. That being said, Ben Roethlisberger should be able to put up some points on this defense if the Dallas game was any indication. They also have a strong defense. Pittsburgh is getting the short end on the spread here after a close game against Cleveland, but I'm not taking anything away from them. I actually think they find a way to win this game outright.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)

The only road favorite this week, and I love it. Green Bay has looked excellent this year, but very rarely are you going to get the publicly loved Cowboys, arguably the best team in the NFC, at only -3.0. I have to jump at this opportunity, especially until anyone shows any ability at all to stop them.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

New York Jets (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)

Initially I was thinking San Diego comes out ultra motivated and dominates this game... but then I looked a bit closer. This is Monday Night Football. This is Brett Favre. After Green Bay's dominant performance opening week on MNF and all the talk that "GB doesn't need Favre anymore with Rodgers playing like this", you think a guy like Favre didn't circle this game on his calendar? Furthermore, Ladanian Tomlinson is out AND what has SD done this year to give you confidence in their defense? I don't see them falling to 0 - 3 here, but there are just too many reasons to believe the Jets keep it close to give up a huge number like 9 points.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Jets

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 14 - 12 - 0 (.538)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-j0eEORIkk

Florida Atlantic +7.0

Tulane -6.0

Southern Miss -9.0
Michigan State -8.5

South Florida -28.0

Tulsa -10.5

@Stanford -9.0

Boise State/Oregon UNDER 55

Miami (Ohio)/Cincinnati UNDER 47.5

Have a great weekend and good luck everybody!

---------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Week 2

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 03:18:17 GMT

Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Clutch.

Tough thing to describe, but everyone understands it. When the game is on the line, when your back is against the wall, when all the cards are on the table, when (insert your favorite cliche here), some people just step up and make it happen in these situations.

So with all of my loyal readers reading, as well as about 50+ new ones that have signed up, how clutch would a nice 11 - 5 record have been to kick off the season?

Naaah. This is me we are talking about. Instead of starting strong, why not bury myself in an 8 games under .500 hole right out of the gate?

I guess there are pros and cons to sucking this bad in week 1.

Cons:

1) I look like I suck at picking pro football... sometimes true.

2) I look like I suck at life (which includes pro football)... this one I actually don't disagree with.

3) I have to work my way out of a massive hole after just one week... always fun.

Pros:

1) I get pity/am like an underdog story.

2) I'm kind of like the failure brother of the straight A student that gets nothing but F's and D's. Now when I get a C+, mom and dad are so proud of me that they buy me ice cream, while straight A student wonders why he never gets ice cream for less then an A...

But I digress.

I'll go over where I went wrong on the recap section, but moving on, lets try and earn that C+ and ice cream this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 - 12 - 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 6 - 10 - 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)

**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 6 - 0 (.143)

Season
With the spread: 4 - 12 - 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 6 - 10 - 0 (.375)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)

**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 6 - 0 (.143)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD:

Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants (-4.0) W
Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5) W
Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0) W
Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland (+5.5) W

THE BAD:

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5) L
Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0) L

Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) L
N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0) L

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5) L

THE "WHAT THE $%^@"?:

Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0) L
Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5) L
Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5) L

I wouldn't expect to win all 3 of these. I could even LIVE with 1 - 2. I know there is a lot more to the game then just QB, but you really mean to tell me that in Week 1 I'm supposed to pick Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Kyle Orton against Carson Palmer, Jon Kitna, and Peyton Manning??

Then of course in the one game I DO take the inexperienced starter...
Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5) L

Brady's injury made this pick irrelevant in a hurry...
Kansas City (+16.5) @ New England (-16.5) L

And minus their most explosive offensive player, the Panthers travel into San Diego and win?
Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0) L

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

Don't have too many upsets this week... can some favorites hold up please?

SUNDAY

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville (-5.5)

Jacksonville at home, looking to make sure they don't fall to 0 - 2... very dangerous to pick against. Still, I look at two defense first hard nosed teams like this facing off and its always hard to see these types of games decided by much more then a FG. Jacksonville may cover here, but I'll give Buffalo some respect and say they keep it close here.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Chicago (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
Tough tough game with both teams coming off of big upsets here. Have to side with Carolina here though; they did a great job containing the run against San Diego and should do a better job containing Forte then Indy did (can't do much worse). This forces Chicago to get out of their comfort zone and start throwing the ball; hilarity ensues.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Tennessee (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
I guess all of this Vince Young drama in the media is making people overlook the fact that Tennessee just beat Jacksonville, and Cinci got smashed by Baltimore. Tennessee's defense is every bit as good (if not better) then the Ravens defense that contained Cincinnati last week, and their offense (yes, even with Kerry Collins) is better, too. Looks like an easy pick to me.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

New Orleans @ Washington (PK)

Another tough game so early in the season... I really hate to pick against New Orleans again as they looked pretty sharp last week, but losing Marques Colston will be a big hit to their offense, and they do have a slew of other injuries as well. I'm still not so sure that Washington will be able to score much, but I'll take a shot on their secondary and their home field advantage.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)

Okay, I get it. Because Green Bay doesn't really have a running back that can exploit Detroit's sad run defense, they are only a 3 point favorite here? Hmm. Call me crazy, but I get the feeling Green Bay will find their way to the endzone just fine in this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

New York Giants (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0)

I'd really love to find some rationale to take this huge home underdog, but unfortunately I saw the "highlights" from the Philadelphia game. It may not get that ugly here, but really no reason for me to believe that the Giants won't be able to have a field day on offense and cover this spread.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5)

This game is really killing me. I simply can not believe the Raiders are as bad as they looked last week, especially not on defense. Not to mention, Damon Huard is no Jay Cutler and the Raiders should have a better day offensively this week. I also believe, and this isn't just the fan in me talking, that the Raiders are the better team on paper. All that said, if Eddie Royal can torch the Raiders as bad as he did, what can Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez do? And can the Raiders stop Larry Johnson? Something tells me the Raiders are the pick here, but it sure isn't logic or reason. Until the Raiders show they can turn potential into results on the field, I can't rationalize picking them.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Indianapolis (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0)

I don't know where to go here. Peyton Manning VS. a vulnerable pass defense and Adrian Peterson VS. a vulnerable rush defense. Two teams motivated not to fall to 0 - 2. This game can go so many ways. And the spread indicates that. I'm tempted to flip a coin, but you know what? The tiebreaker for me here is Peyton Manning. He is far too competitive to let the team fall to 0 - 2, which would be deadly with Tennessee and Jacksonville breathing down their necks. I think?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Seattle (-7.0)

Can't disagree with the spread here. As much as 7 points looks like a lot, San Francisco's offense will have trouble against Seattle's defense, and Seattle will welcome the SF defense after having their hands full with a tough Buffalo team last week. They should win big at home in this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Atlanta (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0)
Atlanta will not be able to do anything close to what they did against Detroit's defense this week. But will Tampa Bay really score enough to cover this spread? Last week I picked against rookie Matt Ryan and he played well, I'm sure taking him this week he'll go through his growing pains on my watch... but I think Atlanta can keep this game respectable if they play smart.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Miami (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Miami was 8 yards away from upsetting the Jets and making me look smart (yeah, like 5 - 11 is smart), but they showed some serious flaws. Not that this should surprise anyone, they still do have a long way to go. I still think I'll turn to them a few times this year, but with as bad as the secondary looked against the Jets, do they have any chance against the dynamic wide receivers in Arizona? Probably not.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5)
Played it pretty safe to this point, haven't I? Here's a curve ball for you. New England, without Tom Brady, wins in New York this week. How? Why? Blasphemy? Believe it or not, this team does have more talent then just Tom Brady... and New York showed some weakness last weak against Miami. But more importantly then all that, this is strictly a motivation thing; how do you think New England feels hearing all week about how Tom Brady's injury means the end of their season and they are now underdogs? This is their week to prove they do not need Tom Brady. And don't get me wrong, they DO need him... but for this week, they will not accept a loss.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^New England

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^New England

San Diego @ Denver (PK)

San Diego loses the heart and soul of their defense in Shawne Merriman, and under Norv Turner they have been slow starters. Denver has to be flying high, and despite the fact that San Diego will be significantly more challenging then the Raiders were, the Broncos also get Brandon Marshall back this week and should play with a lot of confidence at home. Moving to 2 - 0 and making the heavily favored to win the AFC West Chargers 0 - 2 would be a huge boost for this team, especially with the Chiefs and Raiders looking like early non-factors.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0)

If the New England pick was a curve ball, here comes a knuckle-curve gyro ball. The book of philosophy was written for games just like this. Where to begin...

- Bet AGAINST a team coming off of a huge blowout win (Pittsburgh)

- Bet FOR a team coming off of a huge blowout loss (Cleveland)

- Revenge Factor (Pittsburgh has won in their last 9 meetings)

- Bet FOR a team that is a home underdog playing at home for second week in a row

- Bet AGAINST strange looking threads (shouldn't Cleveland be more than +6, considering Pittsburgh is 7 - 1 - 1 ATS in their last 9 meetings and they looked so dominant last week and Cleveland looked so bad?)

Is Pittsburgh the better team? Of course. But my philosophy picks are 60% winners ATS, compared to right around a coin flip without them. As such, I can't pass up on an opportunity this big. I'll take it one step further... and take the straight upset.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Cleveland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Cleveland

MONDAY

Philadelphia (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)

This game can go so many ways. Both teams have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball... this could be a defensive battle OR a shootout. Either way, when it comes to NFC East rivalry games, I don't give up a touchdown's worth of points very often.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Baltimore (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)

Ok, congrats Joe Flacco, you got me last week against Cincinnati. Have fun in your first road game against Mario Williams and the Texans on Monday Night. Houston may not be the toughest team around, but I still don't believe the Ravens are legit just because they beat a bad Bengals team at home. This game will be a good test for them, but I see Houston winning it by a TD or more.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 8 - 9 - 0 (.470)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvl4AR0FwkQ

Iowa State +13.5
Clemson -18.5
Brigham Young -8.0
North Texas +42.0
Utah -24.0
Washington State/Baylor OVER 44.0
Nevada/Missouri UNDER 69.5
Oregon/Purdue OVER 60.0
Oklahoma/Washington OVER 62.0

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Dave's Dime Week 1

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 12:40:24 GMT

Dave's Dime
"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

((I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it and/or you asked me to send it to you. This is not meant to be spam mail. You will only receive one email from me a week. If you want to be taken off the list, let me know, and I'll remove you immediately... but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!))

There are three sure things in life;

Death.

Taxes.

and DAVE'S DIME at football season!

...Unless, of course, I die. Or if I don't pay my taxes and they shut of my Internet and electricity.

Hmm.. maybe that's why those two go first?

In any case, I am alive and well, and once again I am excited to be a part of your football ritual for the upcoming season. Whether you glance, skim, delete, or in some rare cases READ the Dime, I appreciate your interest and your support as I try not to embarrass myself too badly trying to pick winners.

With my unparalleled wit (yes, I'm seriously off balance), exceptional handicapping (1 to 2% better then flipping a coin to pick winners!), superb writing talents (If by superb you mean haven't improved since the 9th grade), and the voice inside my head (that's me!), I hope to provide you with picks against the spread in the NFL that are fun to read and, if I'm lucky, occasionally on target.

But remember above all else that this is FREE. You get what you pay for. It's like when you go on a job fair and the booths give you free things like pens and yo-yos. Do they run out of ink and get knotted up faster then the high quality ones do? Most definitely. But you can't complain, because its free!

So without further ado, lets kick of my broken yo-yo pro football column!

THE RECORD

2007 Season

With the spread: 124 - 123 - 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 - 99 - 0 (.613)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 14 - 7 - 2 (.667)

**Outright Upsets**: 20 - 42 - 0 (.323)

2006 Season

With the spread: 126 - 121 - 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 - 102 - 0 (.602)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 24 - 22 - 2 (.522)
**Outright Upsets**: 36 - 33 - 0 (.522)

2005 Season

With the spread: 138 - 111 - 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 - 89 - 0 (.652)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 27 - 13 - 1 (.675)

This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)

**Outright Upsets**: 0 - 0 - 0 (.000)

With the Spread - I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.

Without the Spread - Who I pick to win the game, outright.

^^Philosophical Picks^^ - If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that.

**Outright Upsets** - When I take the underdog to not only cover the spread but to actually win the game, too. These picks will have a (*) next to them. Did horribly with these last year, but am hoping to turn that around this year.

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether or not I was right or wrong

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually picking some winners?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first timers or forgetful people should read on. Don't worry if you're confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I'll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I'm picking who I'm picking. The number in parenthesis is called "The Spread". This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is "Team One" 7, "Team Two" 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was "Team One" 13.5, "Team Two" 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn't win by enough to "cover the spread" (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 - 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 - 7). The reason numbers usually have .5's on them is so there can not be a tie. If you're still confused, don't worry, it'll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5) <In this example, I'm willing to give up 6.5, I think Team Two will win big>
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5) <Obviously I think they will win the game period, too.>

THE REAL THING!

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

Last year was by far my worst year to date and I was lucky to end up over .500... lets try and get this season started off strong here!

THURSDAY

Washington (+4.0) @ New York Giants (-4.0)

This is the first of many tough games on the schedule this week. Washington did an excellent job drafting this year, and could definitely surprise some people this season. New York, meanwhile, lost two of its best defensive lineman in Michael Strahan (retired) and Osi Umenyiora (injured)... and putting pressure on the quarterback was this team's bread and butter. All that said, with the Giants home opener and the rising of the Super Bowl banner, the fans will be rocking the building and New York should have enough on offense to win this game by a touchdown. I certainly can't pick against them this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

SUNDAY

Seattle (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)

This game just looks ugly. Lots of injuries and question marks, especially on offense for these teams. The spread is right on; this game looks like a coinflip. It'll come down to who gets the bounces or makes the big play. Generally as a rule I take the home team in games like this, but I like Seattle a bit better on paper, so I'll take them and hope for that bounce to go their way.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Detroit (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0)
There is no question that Atlanta will be better then they were last year; they can't really get any worse. That said, there is no excuse for this line only being at 3 points. Kitna and the Lions will put up points, and even with a suspect defense, Matt Ryan will make mistakes as all rookie QBs do in their first season. Don't see Atlanta winning in this spot.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Cincinnati (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
I really hate taking the Bengals after the way they played last year, but with McGahee not at 100% and QB issues like crazy, it is too hard to believe that Baltimore will miraculously start putting points on the board. Even Cinci's defense should be able to keep the game within reason for the offense to take it.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
With the wide receiving core in shambles in Philly, I don't see this game being a shootout. I also don't see St. Louis getting completely shut down on offense. Philly is the better team and should come out on top here, but I think it'll be within a touchdown.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Houston took some strides last year towards becoming a solid team in the AFC, and I believe they can grow on that this year and will probably be competitive in a lot of games this year. Pittsburgh, however, has the makings of being a serious contender in the AFC; with question marks about Brady and Manning's health, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Pittsburgh could get their names thrown in the hat as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I believe they get that ball rolling this week with a convincing win at home.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
First of all, I want to wish Richard Collier, the Jacksonville offensive tackle who was shot this week and suffered some life threatening injuries, my very best. I hope he is able to recover in full. It is hard to handicap a game when a tragedy like this that is so much more important then the game of football is a dark shadow over the game. Despite the fact that Jacksonville may be the better team, the emotional distraction of this loss as well as the fact that they are playing against division rival Tennessee who ALWAYS plays tough and it is in Tennessee, Jacksonville might just have too much working against them this week.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Tennessee

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Tennessee

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
No one is questioning New Orleans talent on offense, or how great of a team they make in fantasy football. In real football though, you need to play defense. I've read that New Orleans may be better and faster on defense this year, but I'll believe it when I see it. I know I'll get a good defensive performance from Tampa Bay, and I can also count on a smart offense run by Jeff Garcia. That may be just about all I need in this one.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Kansas City (+16.5) @ New England (-16.5)
Do I like giving up 16.5 points fresh out of the gate? Absolutely not. But with New England on a mission to prove that last year was not a fluke, and a returning cast on offense that obliterated everyone (except the Giants when it mattered) last season, and a rebuilding Kansas City team... I'm just not crazy enough to pick against New England until I see some vulnerability with my own eyes.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
This game is tough simply because I really believe that both of these teams will show big improvement over last season. Chad Pennington is perfect to run this offense which should run the ball well with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, and should open lanes up for them with a solid west coast offense. All eyes will be on Brett Favre in this game, but he hasn't looked comfortable in this offensive scheme in the preseason. Am I asking way too much from a team that went 1 - 15 last season to turn things around so quickly? Probably... but I just have a feeling.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5)
Arizona has too many distractions (Leinart losing his job to Warner, Boldin demanding a trade and not on talking terms with the coach) to be 100% focused on this game. San Francisco made the right choice in benching Alex Smith for JT O'Sullivan, and I think the team will rally behind this decision and grab a win in the season opener.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^San Francisco

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^San Francisco

Carolina (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
With Steve Smith suspended and out this week, Carolina is without its most explosive offensive weapon; and they would need him to have any chance to keep up with the Chargers. Question marks and concerns are still swirling around Shawne Merriman playing with bad knees, but with or without him, San Diego would still win this game by double digits.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland (+5.5)
Cleveland has plenty of talent, but I believe that Dallas will once again be the class of the NFC this year, and they will just be too talented on both sides of the ball for Cleveland to handle right now. Quinn will make some mistakes under pressure, and Dallas will capitalize.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Chicago (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5)

So much emphasis will be placed on Peyton Manning's knee - which appears to be fine - in this game that I think some people will overlook the fact that the game is going to be decided on the other side of the ball. The Colts have a great defense and the Bears' offense looks on paper to be embarrassing; expect plenty of turnovers and plenty of short fields for the Indy offense.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5)
While Minnesota definitely has question marks at QB, they have an outstanding recipe for success; an elite running back and a strong defense. The Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor connection should be able to move the chains against even the best of defenses; and the amount of pressure on Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers is so intense that I can not imagine he has a flawless game. Vikings upset Green Bay at Lambeau, and let the boo birds and We-Want-Favre drama begin.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Denver (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)

The Raiders are going to be one of the toughest teams in the league to handicap this year, and not only because I'm a fan. They have the talent and potential on both sides of the ball to be as good as 8 - 8, but they also have the question marks and inexperience that could lead to another 2 to 4 win season. I do know one thing; players and fans alike haven't been this excited about a home opener in years. Cutler is prone to making mistakes, and if the Raiders can stop the run AT ALL, their secondary should be able to eat Cutler alive. In a game that could very well set the tone for the entire season, Oakland finds a way to pull it off Monday night.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Oakland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 6 - 4 - 0 (.600)

In this section I list my top plays of the week in college football. Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos, I'll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn't bad enough, right?)

Week 1 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmSPJvHJesU

Southern Methodist/Rice OVER 74.5 (Win)

Florida -34.0 (Win)

USC -19.5 (Win)

Utah +3.5 (Win - ML too!)

Auburn -26.0 (Win)

Clemson -5.0 (Loss)

Arizona -27.0 (Win)

Kansas -36.5 (Loss - by 1 yard)

Colorado State +11.0 (Loss)

Tennessee -7.0 (Loss)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRsLn3Oy--Q

South Carolina -10.0

Michigan -14.5

BYU -9.5

Florida Atlantic -13.5

Oklahoma State/Houston OVER 57

South Florida -12.5
South Florida/Central Florida UNDER 53

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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Check out my sports web page: http://www.davesdime.com

Dave's Dime Super Bowl

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 14:21:41 GMT

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"

THE INTRO

So here we are.

We could have had the Patriots' undefeated streak on the line against Brett Favre for one last hoorah.

We could have had the streak on the line against the NFC's best, the Dallas Cowboys.

Instead, we end up with the team that is being heralded as this year's "Team of Destiny", this year's "'06 Steelers". Do they really stand a chance today?

The answer is a lot more obvious than people seem to realize.

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)

OVER/UNDER: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)

**Outright Upsets**: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)

Season (Final)

With the spread: 124 - 123 - 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 - 99 - 0 (.613)
^^Zen Picks^^: 14 - 7 - 2 (.667)

**Outright Upsets**: 20 - 42 - 0 (.323)

Playoffs

With the spread: 6 - 4 - 0 (.600)
Without the spread: 5 - 5 - 0 (.500)

OVER/UNDER: 6 - 4 - 0 (.600)
^^Zen Picks^^: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)

**Outright Upsets**: 0 - 1 - 0 (.000)

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Zen Pick

#5 New York Giants 13 - 6 (+12.0) @ #1 New England Patriots 18 - 0 (-12.0)

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but everyone is overanalyzing this game WAY too much. A couple of things I'd like to point out...

"The Giants are the team of destiny! They have pulled off 3 great wins in a row to get here."

- Fascinating. Have we forgotten that the Patriots have won SEVENTEEN straight??

"The Giants came close to beating the Patriots in the last game of the season"

- True, but did they? No. A few things to consider; that game was in New York. ALL of the pressure was on the Patriots. On top of stressing about keeping the undefeated season, many of them likely assumed that they would only need to play one half. They had to readjust mid-game to get pumped and win. Think they will have trouble getting pumped for the Super Bowl? Unlikely.

- Has everyone forgotten about a little thing called experience? Most of the Patriots; especially their quarterback; have been to this game now 4 of the last 7 years. They know exactly what to expect, exactly how to handle the media, and everything else that goes with the big game. Think that won't count for something?

And MOST importantly...

- HAVE WE ALL FORGOTTEN HOW MUCH ELI MANNING SUCKS?

I really don't get it. If you remember last year, all we heard about before the game, other than the Bear's stout defense, was how the QB battle was a complete mismatch, and throughout history the team with the much better QB has always come out on top. All we heard about was how much Rex Grossman completely sucked, and how great Peyton Manning was.

The Peyton to Brady comparison isn't one that I need to make; we all know that they are the best two QBs in the league hands down.

But why aren't people making the Eli to Rex comparison? (Maybe they are, but I haven't seen it). I dug up Rex's 2007 stats and it is pretty chilling.

Touchdowns

2007 Eli: 23

2006 Rex: 23

Interceptions

2007 Eli: 20

2006 Rex: 20

QB Rating

2007 Eli: 73.9

2006 Rex: 73.9

Completion %

2007 Eli: 56.1

2006 Rex: 54.1

Passing Yards

2007 Eli: 3336

2006 Rex: 3193

Passing Yards Per Attempt

2006 Rex: 6.65

2007 Eli: 6.31

Don't get me wrong; Eli has played well the postseason. But he is not a good QB at all, and he will absolutely let his true colors show in the big game, just like Rex did.

It may seem like I've just hopped on the Patriots bandwagon with all of my pro Patriots talk. I'll admit it, I think it is really cool that we are seeing an undefeated team in the making in our era. But trust me, I won't be heartbroken if they lose; I'd welcome it with open arms. But there is just one simple fact here; they aren't going to lose. They are going to roll over the Giants, and all of these "It's going to be a good game" people are going to be awfully embarrassed.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 55: UNDER

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